Prediction of geographic distribution and ecological niche modeling of açaí palm trees in the Amazon

Authors

  • Maria José Marques
  • Caroline de Souza Bezerra
  • Jennifer Souza Tomaz
  • Ricardo Lopes
  • Marcos Silveira Wrege
  • Ananda Virginia de Aguiar
  • Santiago Linorio Ferreyra Ramos
  • Carlos Henrique Salvino Gadêlha Meneses
  • Therezinha de Jesus Pinto Fraxe
  • Maria Teresa Gomes Lopes

Abstract

Euterpe precatoria Mart. (açaí-do-amazonas) and Euterpe oleracea Mart. (açaí-do-pará) are palm trees of socioeconomic importance to Brazil, and fruit demand has increased due to its nutritional characteristics. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of global climate change on the current geographic distribution of E. precatoria and E. oleracea and in future climate scenarios using the ecological niche modeling in the scope of Brazilian territories. The modelings used 28 environmental variables, including climatic and edaphic data. The current distribution was verified for the reference period (2009-2019) and future projections were evaluated in two scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways - SSP): SSP 245 (less pessimistic) and SSP 585 (more pessimistic), in the time interval of 2061-2080. All algorithms presented satisfactory evaluation indexes. Euterpe precatoria has a predominant geographic distribution in the Amazon domain, while E. oleracea has potential occurrence in three Brazilian phytogeographic domains: Amazon, Cerrado and Atlantic Forest. Euterpe oleracea showed to be more sensitive to climate change in both scenarios, while E. precatoria was more resilient up to a certain level of temperature increase (SSP 245).

KEYWORDS: Euterpe ssp., climate change, species distribution modeling.

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Published

2024-04-19

How to Cite

MARQUES, M. J.; BEZERRA, C. de S.; TOMAZ, J. S.; LOPES, R.; WREGE, M. S.; AGUIAR, A. V. de; RAMOS, S. L. F.; MENESES, C. H. S. G.; FRAXE, T. de J. P.; LOPES, M. T. G. Prediction of geographic distribution and ecological niche modeling of açaí palm trees in the Amazon. Pesquisa Agropecuária Tropical [Agricultural Research in the Tropics], Goiânia, p. e78108, 2024. Disponível em: https://revistas.ufg.br/pat/article/view/78108. Acesso em: 19 may. 2024.

Issue

v. 54 (2024)

Section

Research Article

License

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