PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE MICROREGION OF TANGARÁ DA SERRA, MATO GROSSO STATE, BRAZIL
Keywords:
Gamma distribution, expected precipitation, agricultural planningAbstract
Due to the irregular occurrence of rainfall in Brazilian Savannas, associated with a vast range of models that aim to evaluate it, this study was carried out to estimate the monthly amount of rainfall, at different probability levels, in Tangará da Serra, Mato Grosso State, Brazil, by using the Gamma function. Pluviometric data from 1970 to 2007 (38 years), provided by the Agência Nacional de Águas (ANA), collected in a pluviometric station located at 14°37’55”S, 57°28’05”W, and 488 m of altitude, were used. The adjustment analysis between estimated and observed data was carried out in accordance with the Kolmogorov-Smirnov adherence test, at 5% of significance, resulting in no significant differences for monthly periods, including those with several values equal or close to zero, allowing the Gamma distribution use. The highest expected monthly precipitation levels took place from November to March (rainy season), while from June to August were noticed the lowest ones (dry period). The other months can be considered as intermediaries between the dry and rainy seasons.
KEY-WORDS: Gamma distribution; expected precipitation; agricultural planning.
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