Analysis and Prognosis of Population Ageing in V4 Countries in the 2050 Horizon

Résumé

The issue of the paper is ageing in individual NUTS 2 regions in the Visegrad Group  and the ageing prognoses. The Visegrad Group (V4) is an alliance of four Central European countries:  Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia. The V4 was established to further the European integration of its participants and to encourage their military, economic and energy cooperation. The current and future population ageing process is presented over time using various demographic indicators (proportional values of individual age groups, index indicators, and multivariate statistical methods). It also points out the causes of ageing and its consequences. Population ageing is the 21st century's dominant demographic phenomenon. The goal of the paper is to point out the ageing of the population in the countries of Visegrad Group (V4), its impact on the demographic situation in these countries, but also on the trends and forecasts of further development by using appropriate theoretical and methodological approaches. On the basis of selected ageing indicators, we compare changes in population ageing from 2001 to the present, as well as future development trends. Declining fertility, increasing longevity, and the progression of large-sized cohorts to the older ages are causing elder shares to rise throughout the world.